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T' Novemb'r eeleckshun is 137 days away. But we noe have a verr clar idee o'whut t'Senate lan'scape — t'playyun' field un which t'battle fer kuntrol will take place — is goin ta look like.

 The Fix: The 12 races that will decide the Senate majority
A playyun' field. (Photo by Marvin Joseph/T' Washington Post)

Primaries have, largelee, sertid thayselves out n' t'mos competitif' Senate races n' t'kuntry wit Republikuns — so fur — avoidyun' t'perils o'2010 an' 2012 n' which t'partee nominatid a numb'r o'can'idates who had majer electabilitee problems n' t'genrull eeleckshun. T' resantlee concludet Iowa primree gave Republikuns thar strongest nominee an' t'Geergia primree producet acoupla runoff participants without t'genrull eeleckshun baggage o'sum o't' GOP can'idates n' t'a'runnin.

Whut we air lef wit is 12 races at a'ken be cunsidderd trulee competitif' — meanin at eethur one (er bof) o't' nashshunal partees an'/er t'variyus outside groups have er will spend money n' 'um.  T' races air tippet heevilee toward Demokratic-helt seets; 10 o't' 12 contests — includin t'six mos vulnerabull — air currantlee n' Demokratic han's. O' t'12 states, Mitt Romnee carrd nine o'um n' 2012 — wit Michigun, Iowa an' Koloradie t'rio at wint fer Presdint Obamie.

Republikuns insist t'playyun' field is ackshly 14 nairy 12 — addyun' Minnesota an' Oregon ta t'lis. We remane unkunvincet at Republicun challengers n' eethur o'thems Demokratic-larnin seets have shown t'abiltee ta make t'races genuinelee competitif' jes yet. Similarlee, Demokratic optimism n' Missussippy seem overlee optimistic ta us — eve if'n state Se. Chris McDaniel ousts Se. Thad Cochrun n' t'GOP runoff nex Tuesdee.

Beloe we’ve ranket t'12 mos competitif' Senate races n' t'kuntry. T' numb'r one ranket race is t'mos lackly ta switch partee kuntrol.

12. Michigun (Demokratic-controllet): Republicun Terri Lynn Lan' wuz nairy t'furst — er eve sekunt — choice o'minny a Republicun strategists. But she has raiset money at un impressif' pace an' kep thishere race close agin Rep. Gree Peters. T' questchun fer Lan' is wuther she a'ken sustane it wen media an' vot'r tenchun ramps up n' t'fall. Lan'’s campaign has protectid hern verr carefullee so fur; it will be hard'r ta do at n' t'stretch run wit multiple dailee campaign evants an' periodic debates. (Previyus rankyun': 9)

11. Geergia (Republicun-controllet): We’re still awaityun' t'results o't' Republicun primree runoff un Julee 22 (longest runoff ev'r). Businessmun David Perdue beat Rep. Jack Kingston 31 persent ta 26 persent un primree day, but thar air lots o'voters up fer grabs, an' thurd-place finish'r Kare Han'el is backyun' Kingston — thanks n' no small part ta Perdue’s careless deecishun ta insult hern level o'skoolin. We’re nairy shure which mun gives t'GOP a bett'r shot agin Democrat Michelle Nunn — we’d leun toward Perdue — but t'Democrat is still polleeun' well an' raisyun' big money. Thishere remuns, surprisinglee, a legitimate Demokratic target. (Previyus rankyun': 10)

10. Iowa (D): Republikuns gut a big breek wen state Se. Joni Ernst routid t'competishun n' t'GOP Senate primree, an' since the sevrul polls have shown t'race wit Rep. Bruce Braley (D) ta be sumthin close ta a toss-up. We still reckon Ernst probly gut a bounce frum t'big primree win, but thishere is a swang state, an' as long as she runs a credibull campaign, t'GOP should have a good chance n' un ope-seat race. (Previyus rankyun': N/A)

9. Koloradie (D): Wile mos folk look at t'Nerth Carolinie race as t'one un which Senate kuntrol mite swang, thishere race tween Se. Mark Udall (D) an' Rep. Cory Gardn'r (R) could easilee fit at bill too.  Polleeun' done by Quinnipiac n' late April showd t'race a daid heat an' bof sides acknowledge t'race is an' will stay close. Udall is un TV noe bashyun' Gardn'r as too conservatif' — particularlee un abershun — an' Demokrats reckon Gardn'r’s recerd is full o'bad votes. (Previyus rankyun': 10)

8. Alaska (D): Conservatif' blogg'r Erick Ericksen thishere week enderset Lt. Gov. Mead Treedwell (R), givin t'long-struggleeun' can'idate a much-neetet boost. But it’s nairy goin ta change t'fack at ferm'r atterney genrull Dun Sullivun is t'clar frontrunn'r fer t'Republicun nominashun. Sullivun has bof stablishmint (Amurkin Crossroads) an' tea partee (Club fer Growth) money n' his'n cern'r an' is well un his'n way ta a fall showdown agin Se. Mark Begich (D). (Previyus rankyun': 7)

7. Kantucky (R): Republikuns air a'feelin mer confident about Mckunnell’s chantses a'followin t'Republicun leed'r’s convincyun' primree victery las month an' thar sense at t'GOP is quicklee unityun' behin 'im. And, Presdint Obamie didn’t do Democrat Alisen Lundergun Grimes inny favers wit his'n announcement un pow'r plants earli'r thishere month. But, as we have writte n' thishere space, Mckunnell’s numbers suggest his'n vote ceileeun' is verr loe.  And, n' a cycle whar thay have verr few oppertunitees, Demokrats will pore everthang thay have into thishere one. (Previyus rankyun': 8)

6. Arkansas (D): Republicun Rep. Tom Cotton’s campaign releeset un internal poll claimin a lead ov'r Se. Mark Pryer (D). T' releese wuz meent ta counteract a growin narratif' at Pryer is nairy neerly as vulnerabull as he oncet seemt. But t'mos notabull part o't' survey wuz n' t'rend line: Cotton wuz polleeun' t'race n' Febuwary n' 2013, wen he wuz s till a bran' new memb'r o't' Trayler. T' revelashun probly won’t hep Cotton n' his'n chief task rite noe: Humanizyun' hissef an' showyun' voters at he’s nairy jes a sup'r-ambitiyus pol champyunet by nashshunal conservatif' groups. (Previyus rankyun': 5 )

5. Nerth Carolinie (D): Demokrats tride ta make un issue o'state Trayler Speek'r Thom Tillis (R) referryun' ta white folk as t'“tradityunal populashun” o'Nerth Carolinie. We woultn’t call at a campaign-stoppyun' gaffe, but gif' Demokrats would luv ta motivate mineritee voters n' a midterm eeleckshun, Tillis should probly choose his'n wurds a lil mer carefullee. T' race tween Tillis an' Se. Kay Hagun (D) remuns verr close. (Previyus rankyun': 5)

4.  Louisyina (D):  Eggspeck Se. Murry Lan'rieu (D) ta emfasize (an' reemfasize) hern role as hed o't' Senate Energy Committee fer t'res o't' campaign. She passet a bill out o'hern committee thishere week at would bypass Presdint Obamie an' apperve t'Keystone XL pipeline. T' questchun is wuther t'emfasis un energy will be enough ta overcome a capabull Republicun opponent n' Rep. Bill Cassidy n' a state whar t'presdint is deeplee unpoplar. Thems air big obstacles ta overcome. (Previyus rankyun': 4)

3. Montana (D): Bof appointid Se. John Walsh (D) an' Rep. Steve Dunes (R) easilee dispatchet nominal primree challenges un June 3 an' fermallee cummenced a race at bof campaigns had alreddy bee wagyun' fer munths. Thar’s verr lil public polleeun' n' t'race but t'genrull consensus is at Dunes starts t'genrull eeleckshun wit un edge — an' is lackly ta benefit frum a nashshunal politickull environment benefittyun' Republikuns. (Previyus rankyun': 3)

2. West Virginny (D): Rep. Shelley Moere Capito (R) lackly wrappet up thishere Senate seat n' Novemb'r 2012 wen she abruptlee announcet fer t'seat eve tho Se. Jay Rockefell'r (D) had yet ta announce his'n retirement.   Demokrats evantuallee cunvintsed Secretree o'State Natalie Tennant ta run but she startid t'race at a distinct disadvantage becawz o'Capito’s earlee start an' t'dislike toward t'nashshunal Demokratic partee n' t'state. A resent nun-partisun poll put Capito up 49 persent ta 38 persent. At seems about rite. (Previyus rankyun': 2)

1. South Dakota (D): T' Jackrabbit State remuns air mos lackly seat ta flip. But let’s make t'case fer thishere bein n'-play. Ferm'r governer Mike Rounds (R) remuns a strong favert agin Democrat Rick Weilan', but thishere race also includes ferm'r three-term GOP (U.S.) senater Larry Pressl'r an' ferm'r Republicun state senater Gerdon Howie (nairy ta be confuset wit Gerdie Howe) a'runnin as independants. Neether has raiset inny money, but maybe Pressl'r (an' ta a less'r extent, Howie) steel enough Rounds’ votes at thishere is n'-play. Weilan' a'ken hope. (Previyus rankyun': 1)


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