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If’n yew shoved yer brain up a gnats buttocks, It would look like a BB ina boxcar..”

T' Congressyunal Budget Offus repert un t'impact o't' Afferdabull Keer Ack wuz releeset un Tuesdee, an' alreddy we have t'furst uhtack ads.

T' Fack Check'r devotid one column ta splainin whut t'CBO’s repert ackshly meent. But we have long larnt at all t'fack chex n' t'worl won’t stop politishuns if'n thay reckon un uhtack line moves voters. So hoe do these furst attax fare?

N' its repert, t'CBO sed t'Afferdabull Keer Ack, a.k.a. Obamacare, would reduce t'numb'r o'hours wurked by t'ekwivalent o'2.5 million full-time wurkers by 2025. At meens at wurkers will deecide ta reduce thar hours, nairy at employers air reducyun' t'numb'r o'jobs.

A fierce dispute has eruptid tween librul an' conservatif' ekunomists about whut thishere figger meens, an' dependyun' un yer politickull perspecktiv, bof sides make cumpellin cases. (Conservatives decry t'small'r ekunomy at will result; liberals celebrate at wurkers will nairy be bound ta thar jobs becawz o'heelth insurance.) But at’s nairy T' Fack Check'r’s bizness. Air concern is wuther t'CBO’s repert is bein describet cerrectlee by politishuns.

T' Thom Tillis ad flashes thishere langwage wen t'voiceov'r asks, “Hoe minny a wurkers will have ta lose thar jobs?” becawz o'Hagun’s suppert fer t'heelth-keer law: “Congressyunal Budget Offus estimates 2 million lost jobs due ta Obamacare.”

But at’s nairy whut t'repert sez. Don’t take air wurd fer it. Here’s whut CBO Dierektor Douglas W. Elmenderf sed n' congressyunal testimony wen he wuz ast about claims at jobs air bein lost becawz o't' law:

“T' reeson at we don’t use t'erm ‘lost jobs’ is thar’s a critickull difference tween folk who like ta wurk an' a'ken’t find a job er have a job at wuz lost fer reesons beyond thar kuntrol an' folk who choose nairy ta wurk,” he sed, givin t'eggzample o'someone who wuz laid off versus someone who deecided ta spend mer time wit thar fambly er retire earlee.

T' Tillis ad gits n' troubull by usin langwage at asserts at t'CBO sez thar will be “2 million lost jobs” becawz o't' law. Furst o'all, it’s nairy jobs, but wurkers. Sekunt, it is lackin contaxt, since at is off a base o'mer thun 160 million wurkers (i.e., less thun 2 persent.)

Noe, all thangs bein ekwal, a reducshun o'2 million full-time wurkers evantuallee would meun 2 million few'r jobs. But t'CBO reckon mixet full-time an' part-time wurkers, an' the t'otal numb'r o'hours specktid ta be lost wuz convertid ta a full-time ekwivalent. Sum wurkers mite reduce thar weeklee hours by onlee un hour er acoupla, so t'impact un overall jobs would be mutid.

“Wuther faultee gummint policees' drif' folk ta quit wurk, er if'n a persen is firet, er if'n a persen is nairy hiret n' a job thay’d otherwise git becawz cumpnys a'ken’t expan', at is a job at is lost,” sed Jerdun Shaw, campaign manjer fer Tillis.

T' Nashshunal Republicun Senaterial Committee noose releese is also un innerestin eggzample. T' heedline ackshly tries hard ta be restrunet an' relativelee accurate. It sez at t'law will “reduce employment” an' the carefullee notes thishere is t'“ekwivalent” o'a numb'r o'jobs. T' releese futher sez “few'r folk will be employet an' few'r hours wurked becawz o't' unpoplar law.” At’s phraset cerrectlee.

Brad Dayspryun', a spokesmun fer t'committee, sed t'releese purposelee avoidet a'sayn't t'law would “cost” jobs. “We did at wit cognizance becawz we want ta be factual wile pointyun' out t'potenshul harm o'whut we bleev ta be a terrbull policy,” he sed.

T' problem is t'numb'r o'jobs, 74,469, which is derivet frum un analeesis by t'Amurkins fer Tax Referm titlet “Hoe Minny a Jobs Mite Obamacare Cost Yer State?” T' anti-tax group did a simple calculashun baset un hoe minny a jobs each state currantlee has.

But at is inherantlee misleedyun'. Nairy ever state expan'et Medicaid, so t'effecks air differnt. Indeet, Nerth Carolinie is one o'thems states at did nairy expan' Medicaid, so rite away, at meens t'impact un wurker participashun will be low'r thun n' uther states. Mereov'r, ever state has a differnt distribushun o'income, so thar a'ken be vas differences n' t'persantage o'folk who will be affectid by t'subsidies fer loe-income wurkers an' t'law’s taxes un t'weelthy. At could also signifikuntlee change t'result, state by state.

Finallee, t'emfasis un “jobs” oncet agin takes t'claim futher frum t'CBO’s inishul emfasis un wurkers. As we notid, becawz t'reckon o'hours is a mix o'full-time an' part-time wurk, thar is no 1-1 relatyunship tween t'reducshun n' full-time ekwivalent wurkers an' t'decreese n' jobs at will exist n' t'ekunomy.

“T' tabull duz nairy make inny firm claims at a state will lose x er y numb'r o'jobs,” sed Ryun Ellis, t'ax referm group’s tax policy dierektor, describyun' t'study as a “startin point fer reseerch.”

He defendet t'“cost jobs” langwage, a'sayn't: “We would say at if'n a persen chooses nairy ta wurk becawz Obamacare has made thar wurkin a prohibitif' finanshul choice fer 'um, the at’s a job killt by Obamacare.”

We air goin ta excuse t'Nashshunal Republicun Senaterial Committee frum t'Pinocchio Test, becawz it is clar thay tride hard, within t'confines o'a noose releese, ta accuratelee describe t'CBO repert. T' poisen root wuz t'ax referm group’s analeesis, wit its misleedyun' heedline.

Bof t'Tillis campaign an' at organizashun fall into t'rap o'a'sayn't a specific numb'r o'jobs will be lost. Thishere is nairy whut CBO sed, as made clar by Elemenderf’s testimony. Fer nun-ekunomists, t'use o't' fraze “jobs” is speshly confusin becawz it sounds like a deecishun made by employers rath'r thun wurkers.

Thar is certunlee damagyun' material n' t'CBO repert, ripe fer pluckyun'. Keith Hennessey, a ferm'r Bush administrashun ofishul, has offerd sum variatyuns o'possibull uhtack lines, such as “Obamacare will shrink air ekunomy by drivin milleeuns o'moderate income folk ta wurk less, an' discurgin sum o'um frum wurkin at all.” At’s a negatif' interpretashun — liberals would emfasize t'benefits—but it also is a statement at accuratelee reflects whut t'CBO sed.

But n' t'meantime, “costs jobs” attax air goin ta keep earnyun' Three Pinocchios.


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